Solar Energy Investing - Energy and Capital

Solar Stocks: Trends & Market Outlook

Solar stocks are completely undervalued. And big money stands to be made. The following is a current profile of the industry, along with what to expect going forward.

The Solar Industry

Let's start with the basics.

The global solar industry has grown 849% over the past eight years, from an installed capacity of 877 MW in 2000 to 8,325 MW at the end of 2007.

That breaks down to a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 37.9% for the same period.

Folks, not many things grow 849% in eight years. For perspective, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained only 12% during the same time.

Broken down by country, or by region, some interesting trends also emerge, especially when it comes to the countries with the highest growth rates for solar installations.

For example, I bet you'd never guess that the United Kingdom ranked among the top five countries for solar installation growth over the past eight years.

Here's the full list of those countries, along with their respective solar installation annual growth rates:

Spain, 73.3% CAGR
Germany, 65.3% CAGR
United Kingdom, 36.9% CAGR
Indonesia, 35.4% CAGR
Japan, 31.5% CAGR

That's the story for the past eight years. Some savvy investors made a lot of money, but it's nothing compared to what'll happen the next eight years.

Solar Stocks Outlook & Industry Forecast

Under a conservative growth scenario, the solar energy industry will grow another 39% by the end of 2009. By 2012, it will have grown over 135% from 2007 levels.

Worth noting is that the compounded annual growth slows during the period from 2007-2012, to 18.7%—down from 37.9% for the period from 2000-2007.

This is more an indication that the industry is maturing than it is an indication of slower growth. This is due to the volume of solar module being installed.

For example, 19,624 MW of solar energy capacity will be installed in 2012. Only 9,797 MW will be installed this year.

So the percentage growth of installs is slower, but the amount of panels being produced and installed is much greater. This is great news for investors.

Interestingly, the countries in which a good portion of these future panels are going to be installed is different from the countries leading the way over the past eight years.

This is due to saturating markets, policy leadership, and the price of retail electricity if different areas.

The five countries leading the way in the next five years are, along with their estimated CAGR:

China, 35.8% CAGR
Thailand, 35.7% CAGR
Indonesia, 34.9% CAGR
India, 34.3% CAGR
South Africa, 29.7% CAGR

The U.S. comes in fifth for anticipated growth over the next five years, with good opportunities also emerging in the Mediterranean basin and Australia.

Preparing for Solar Industry Growth

To get a grip of how the solar industry is playing out, it's helpful to first see who the largest players are.

Here's a chart of the top solar cell producers by market share for 2006-2007:

I will tell you, however, that Q-Cells (XETRA: QCE) has since taken over the top spot.

Sharp (TYO: 6753), Kyocera (NYSE: KYO), Sanyo (TYO: 6764), Mitsubishi, and BP Solar (NYSE: BP) cannot be invested in as pure solar plays, so I immediately dismiss them. I'm only after the pure plays here.

That leaves Motech (TAIWAN: 6244), SolarWorld (XETRA: SWV), and Suntech (NYSE: STP) if you want to play with the big boys. Schott is a special case that we'll get to in a minute.

Motech is a Taiwanese solar company that reported a record $348.5 million in revenues for the fiscal year ended June 2008, though net profit actually fell 31.9% to $2.78 million.

The company is engaged in the supply of high-quality, low-cost crystalline solar cells to Photovoltaic Industry and module manufacturers worldwide. They've signed major silicon agreements with Nitol (now partially owned by Suntech) and DC Chemical—two of the largest players in the silicon supply game.

If you trade internationally, keep an eye on them.

SolarWorld is a vertically integrated solar company based in Germany. They're involved in the entire process, from silicon production to module manufacturing. And, like Motech, they've also signed a silicon supply deal, worth $580 million, with DC Chemical.

SolarWorld has also built and opened their own silicon production plant.

But Suntech is my favorite play here. It's traded domestically, so everyone has access to it, and it's been performing beautifully. This is a company that reported a 61.6% increase in net profit from 2006 to 2007.

They boast highly efficient cells, operate across nearly all sectors of the market, and are properly position in both China, the U.S., and Australia.

Coming soon, we'll have access to Schott Solar.

The company announced plans to raise $740 million through an initial public offering last week.

No word yet on when they will list, but you can bet Green Chip International will be all over it, along with the rest of the opportunities in the international green markets.

Call it like you see it,

Nick

PS. Company and industry data and charts provided by GlobalData.

Solar Energy Companies

Oil isn't the only overpriced commodity.

Silicon, the raw ingredient for solar panels, is also in short supply and being sold for near-record prices. So precious is the metal that in some recent cases it has been sold for as much as $500 per kilogram at the spot price.

Those who've negotiated long-term contracts may enjoy a slightly lower price.

For some time now, silicon procurement and prices have been a driving factor behind the success of solar panel producers that use silicon-based technology.

If a company has a steady supply, secured by contracts, it's generally been less volatile than its peers struggling to secure feedstock on the spot market.

Some solar energy companies that have been buying silicon at spot prices have seen those increased costs reflected in the form of decreased margins. And not only do decreased margins look bad on quarterly reports, in many cases they're also cutting into net profit. Not a good situation.

In the face of high raw material costs, the companies that use the least amount of silicon, or the ones that use none at all, have been the companies to be in.

Naturally, solar companies that specialize in silicon production and refining have also found good success.

Let's take a look at a few of those success stories.

Solar Energy Companies and The Silicon Supply Supernova

You may already know what's coming, but the most clearcut example of a company prospering from silicon is MEMC Electronic Materials (NYSE: WFR). I mean, their ticker says it all: WFR, short for wafer—the silicon building block of a solar panel.

If you bought that stock two years ago, you'd now be up 80%. But had you bailed late last year, as the markets were just beginning to tank, you could've made 174%, as the stock topped out near $96 around Christmas time. Take a look:

You can see how WFR made its run parallel to the silicon supply crunch that began in 2005. This is essentially the same way oil exploration and service companies have risen along with associated oil supply concerns.

The second example of how silicon-related companies have skyrocketed comes from a relative newcomer.

Before mid-April, you'd have been hard-pressed to find someone who had even heard of ReneSola Ltd. (NYSE: SOL). The company IPOed in January and traded down until some promising news started surfacing during the fourth week of spring.

On April 15^th, the company announced two six-year wafer supply agreements for 105 MW each with Ningbo Solar Electric Power and Eoplly New Energy Technology, both solar cell manufacturers.

On April 17^th, the company increased its output and revenue guidance to 320 MW and $550 million, respectively. That day, another six-year, 105 MW agreement rolled in from Shenzhen Topray Solar, another cell manufacturer.

What's more, the company was busy expanding upstream in the silicon value chain as they ventured into polysilicon manufacturing. As we've seen time and time again, The Street loves vertically integrated solar energy companies.

Renesola leaped 113% in about one month's time, from mid-April to mid-May. It rests now at about $17, but I've seen 12-month estimates on this one as high as $40. Check it out:

But that could be nothing compared to. . .

The Next Round of Silicon-Induced Profits

Here's why.

For all of WFR's success, they are not the leading producer of silicon feedstock. Here are their recent output numbers and future estimates:

2006: 4,100 metric tons
2007: 4,875 metric tons
2008: 6,675 metric tons
2009: 8,000 metric tons
2010: 8,000 metric tons

That's enough to make it the world's fourth or fifth largest producer, depending on who you ask. I'd call it fifth, if you take into consideration the estimates through 2010.

And while WFR could see increased upside as the silicon crunch continues to play out, I'd be putting my money on the fourth largest producer, which has a chance to double in the next 12 months.

In case you're wondering, the largest producer, Hemlock, is privately held. The second-largest, Wacker Chemie (XETRA: WCH) has been volatile lately. And the third-largest, Tokuyama (TYO: 4043), is too diversified to invest in based solely on silicon merits.

But the fourth-largest producer is a gem in the making. Its silicon wafer division is sold out for 2008 and 2009, which translates into pretty firm revenue guidance. It also has an order book value of $6 billion.

What's more, this company's output numbers blow WFR's out of the water. They're anticipating production of 7,000 metric tons in 2008, ramping to 12,500 metric tons in 2009.

Plus, the company is also vertically integrated—it makes wafers and modules as well. Pending a decision to build a plant in Singapore, the company could reach a 2.3 gigawatt output of wafers in 2001, which is very impressive.

I'll be recommending this solar energy stock to members of Green Chip International early next week. But you have to be a member to get in on it.

In addition, I'll be recommending a German solar integrator along with it. Integrator, in the solar energy world, basically means installer.

And as such, the company is not tied to any one technology or feedstock. Specializing in both rooftop and utility scale installations, this company is more than well-positioned profit from a still robust German market (people are trying to get as many panels installed as they can before the subsidy reduction in 2009) and from a set-to-explode Mediterranean market.

In several locations surrounding the Mediterranean, solar has already reached grid parity—the point when solar-derived electricity is cost competitive with local peak utility rates. So installations in that area are about to skyrocket.

You can get in on both of these opportunities. Simply take a few minutes to read a little more about the service and become a member. Then, once I recommend the stocks, you'll get the detailed information right to your inbox.

These are easy profits, folks. Don't miss out.

Call it like you see it,

Nick

P.S. Green Chip International recommends renewable energy companies based outside the U.S. While some of them trade on domestic exchanges, others only trade in their native countries. Keep this in mind before you become a member.

Solar Cleantech

We know by now that one of the main reasons for oil's recent dramatic rise was the weakening dollar.

Until September 2007—as Chris Nelder pointed out the other day—oil was rising for fundamental reasons, like tight supply or low reserves.

But we now know that a weakening dollar was more than partly to blame, and that oil's price had to increase merely to retain the same level of worth.

Simple logic, then, would deduce that same phenomenon is occurring across multiple sectors.

But as you'll see, that's simply not the case.

Weak Dollar Doesn't Affect Solar

Many armchair pundits have assumed that a depreciated dollar would impact the profitability of solar cell makers in the first quarter of 2008.

And yet, for the past week or so, many solar stocks have simply blown it out of the water.

Ascent Solar Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: ASTI), for example, climbed from $8.02 on March 20^th to $17.10 on March 31^st—a 113% run in just eight trading days.

Spire Corp. (NASDAQ: SPIR), for its part, climbed from $10.36 on March 20^th to $17.35 on March 27^th—a 67% explosion in only six sessions.

Rest assured that those types of advances aren't just to cover a dwindling dollar. They were rising for a reason.

Many solar cell makers have boasted that the dollar's waning simply hasn't had an impact on their core businesses.

Since the word's largest solar markets are abroad—Europe and Japan—many of the payments are made in currencies other than dollars.

On the other hand, the largest market for oil is—no surprise here—the United States.

Essentially, the oil market is spinning its wheels, charging higher prices for the same amount of product while the cleantech industries—solar in particular—pass them by.

Ironically, the same thinking that has led the U.S. to be a slow adopter of clean energy is now also causing acute inflation of oil prices. And prices aren't the only thing increasing. So is consumer disgust with the oil companies.

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Solar, Cleantech and Big Oil

By now, you're in tune with the groundswell against Big Oil. But you may not know that growing distain is translating into increased dollars for the cleantech industry.

And not just the cleantech industry, but the products being used a bridge to it—natural gas, carbon capture and more efficiency.

Just last week we saw truckers ride their brakes to show their aversion to high diesel prices.

But more and more, truckers and trucking companies aren't just slowing down to show their concern. They're beginning to pour millions into more efficient engines, hybrid big rigs and engines that run on alternative fuel.

We've also recently seen Congress grill Big Oil execs on their companies taking record profits while Americans struggle to keep their tanks full. A reoccurring theme during that questioning was why a greater share of their profits weren't directed toward cleantech investments.

And the most revealing news of late is a survey conducted by the Economic Development Authority in Fairfax, Virginia in which respondents actually preferred and energy solution to a cure for cancer.

The growing uproar against oil and for cleantech is now dictating cash flows as well.

Last week, 18 states opted to sue the Environmental Protection Agency for failing to limit greenhouse gas emissions from fossil-fuel burning cars and trucks.

The same week, two new efforts to extend the solar Investment Tax Credit were introduced in the House and Senate. The extension of those tax credits would do wonders for cleantech profitability and stock prices.

In fact, just the introduction of one of those bills sent the entire industry soaring last Friday.

And the uptick continued today. Some cleantech plays flew 10% or even 15%.

Folks, you may be paying significantly more for the same amount of oil, but the cleantech industry is the exact opposite.

Oil companies now have to spend more to find every drop of oil they produce because, let's face it, we're running out.

In cleantech on the other hand, production costs are coming down. And you can still get good deals on many of the associated stocks that are ready to blow it out of the water.

Until next time,

Nick

PS. There are many technologies involved in building the bridge away from coal and oil. Pure green technologies like wind, solar and geothermal are delivering valuable solutions as well as hefty returns. And so are the stop-gap technologies like natural gas engines, energy efficiency and carbon capture. The Alternative Energy Speculator is profiting from all these angles. And my latest recommendation is up 85% in three weeks. To learn more about the Alternative Energy Speculator, click here.

Solar Energy Tax Credits

On Wednesday, the House approved $18 billion in new taxes on Big Oil. The plan is to take that money and put it towards tax breaks for wind, solar and other renewable energy sources...over a ten-year period.

Now as much as I support the full integration of renewable energy, I'm also the last person who would advocate penalizing any company for making a boatload of money.

And that's exactly the argument opponents of this bill are using to send it on the fast track to oblivion.

The only problem is, it's nothing more than another lie, paid for by, well, you—the taxpayer.

Here's the deal...

Back in 2002, Congress gave a subsidy to manufacturers that didn't include Big Oil. But the WTO had ruled that the subsidy was a violation of trade accords. So Congress then came up with a provision that lowered the corporate tax rate from 35% to 32%. This did include oil companies.

The recently passed House bill essentially eliminates that tax break for Exxon Mobil, Conoco Phillips, BP, Royal Dutch Shell and Chevron.

So before we go any further, let's get this straight.

The bill does not call for sticking Big Oil with an $18 billion tab. It calls for rescinding a tax break.

Let Them Pay!

Renewable energy opponents often make the argument that if it can't work without subsidies and tax breaks, then it must not be a good business model.

We couldn't agree more.

So let's cut every last cent that you and I pay to the oil companies via all those tax breaks, subsidies and overall support

Why not?

I don't know about you, but why should any of us have to pay to secure the shipping lanes so they can move that oil from point A to point B. That's an operational expense, folks...not a justifiable tax!

Let the oil companies pass that cost—a cost they must incur to do business—on to the consumer.

Let them pay to find more oil too. That's not our job.

In 2006, the US (taxpayers), loaned more than $2 billion directly to oil companies to help them extract, refine, and transport oil in Algeria, Columbia and Russia.

How's that make you feel?

Let's cut the crap, and let the oil companies operate without that golden crutch.

Let the price of gas soar to $15 a gallon.

Let's watch everything we ship, manufacture, eat and wear quintuple in price, and see how fast we level that playing field.

Of course, much of this recent $18 billion debate could've been avoided had this ridiculous stimulus plan (or what I like to call the last band-aid on a sinking ship) included funding a sustainable energy infrastructure that would reward such an investment for decades to come.

You know, instead of sending out a bunch of $600 checks that will depreciate in value from the time they're printed to the time they arrive in your mailbox.

Perhaps I'd be a bit more excited about it if it were in Euros!

But enough of the ranting.

We're here to make money, right?

So let's do just that.

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Seasonal Solar

Over the past few weeks we've watched the entire solar sector get hammered.

Some of it has to do with the overall condition of the market. But there's also a lot of hesitancy on the part of investors because Congress has yet to extend the federal tax credits for solar.

The credits are set to expire at the end of 2008. And few seem willing to jump back in until those credits are extended.

Though in about 3 to 5 years, none of this will really matter anyway. Because the cost of solar will be competitive with natural gas and coal, thanks to increasing efficiencies, lower production costs and future global warming legislation that IS going to happen, and WILL affect the profitability of utilities operating coal-fired power plants.

Of course that still doesn't change current market conditions.

But while solar will continue to experience a bumpy ride in 2008, there is one angle you can play this year that will prove to be a very profitable angle in the second and third quarter.

Profiting from Solar Installations

While we are seeing a lot of folks shying away from solar right now, installers are gearing up for a record year.

The tax credits are still in place for the next ten months. And there's a massive backlog of installation contracts in California-the state with SB-1, the Million Solar Roofs Bill that was signed into law in 2006.

As the Golden State continues to move forward with its goal of one million solar roofs, installers are guaranteed a robust marketplace for the next eight years. And that's with or without the federal tax credits

And the best part is, the few publicly-traded companies that install solar have been caught up in the recent market meltdown...providing bargain hunters with an excellent opportunity to pick up shares at ridiculously low levels.

Our favorite, and really one of just a handful, is Akeena Solar (NASDAQ:AKNS).

Akeena is one of California's largest installers. But its standardized installation system (a system that saves massive amounts of time and money) is what separates it from the typical installer. As well, it's aligned with the biggest solar manufacturers in the world, including SunPower, SunTech and Kyocera.

The stock is trading below $6.00 right now.

But in a few months, as we head into the busiest installation season (spring and summer), we're going to see this company land a wealth of new contracts, drawing the fence-sitters in to push the stock back up to levels closer to $9.00 a share.

You can read more about Akeena Solar at Green Chip Stocks.

To a new way of life, and a new generation of wealth...

Jeff

Thin Film-Solar's Holy Grail

Baltimore, MD-The solar power doom and gloomers are at it again. But then again they can't really help themselves. After all, the price of both oil and natural gas both fell sharply last week. And in doing so it gave them a sort of convoluted beachhead from which to roll their eyes at solar.

But what these flat earthers don't seem to understand is that there is actually a bona fide revolution going on in solar power. And it's the kind of revolution that is quickly beginning to disconnect the industry from the chains have that shackled it to the price of a barrel of oil or its equivalent in natural gas.

Now for those of you whose eyes glaze over at the mere mention of solar power, let me tell you this about the new solar: it's not your grandfather's solar and it's certainly not the 70's anymore either.

And no matter how much it may be ingrained into your mind that solar power is just some sort of distortional fantasy, nothing could be further from the truth.

Because not only have the times themselves changed, but they are in the process of being transformed in ways that will alter the way we think about solar forever.

Leading this stunning transformation, as usual is a next generation technology. It's called thin film solar.

It's smaller, cheaper, and more efficient than its silicon based predecessors and it now stands poised to shake the industry from out of its doldrums.

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In fact, its emergence in to the market is expected to help the solar industry grow from $11 billion in 2005 to $51 billion in 2015 according to a projection by Clean Edge Inc., a market research firm that is focused on clean technology.

And since those numbers are hardly the types of figures that you can roll your eyes at, numerous companies are working to stake themselves a thin film claim.

Leading the way in this space is Nanosolar Inc., a private Palo Alto company that was founded with a little seed money from the Google guys themselves, Larry Page and Sergey Brin.

Founded in 2001, Nanosolar recently made the type of an announcement that changes landscapes. In fact, just last June the company announced that they were going to build the world's largest factory for making solar power cells.

And while this announcement may have failed to move some, to the solar power industry, the news was a tsunami. In one fell swoop, the nation's solar manufacturing process would triple, making the U.S. the second largest solar manufacturer. Only the Japanese would be larger.

Even more stunning was capacity of the plant itself. According to Nanosolar's CEO, Martin Roschesien, the plant will turn out enough solar cells each year to generate 430 megawatts. That's enough electricity to power about 325,000 homes.

Once started, the Nanosolar plant will produce a new type of material that will blow away the existing silicon based panels at 1/10 of the cost. And in doing so, this new technology promises to make solar competitive with fossil based fuels- even if those fuels drop drastically in prices.

In short, it is the solar equivalent of the Holy Grail.

All of which makes Nanosolar a true pioneer in their industry. For four years their engineers had been busy working on solar cell prototypes. The pay dirt, Roscheisen says, is that Nanosolar's engineers have created the types solar cell technologies that are now poised to shake the industry from its reliance on costly silicon based panels.

Of course, these revolutionary developments couldn't possibly have come at a better time.

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With the Middle East currently in a state of constant turmoil and the price of oil tied to its whims, it looks as though solar's day in the sun may finally have arrived.

"This is a good space", Roscheisen says. "The market is very, very, large."

Venture capitalists seem to agree. Once primarily the realm of an environmental fringe, solar has suddenly become a hot commodity. And the very folks that made fortunes in the 1990's during the internet boom are now among its biggest advocates.

But what made all of this promise possible has been the creation and improvement of thin film technology.

In the course of their work, Nanosolar engineers developed a way to imbed a compound called CIGS into thin polymer films. This metallic compound is the key to the entire process. It contains copper, indium, gallium and selenium. Without these metals the production of these films is impossible.

The important note here is that these films are without silicon, a factor that allows them to be more cheaply produced.

But Nanosolar's news didn't end with the announcement of its record setting factory. Recently the company also announced that it had signed a long term agreement to develop large scale solar power systems with Conergy an experienced worldwide solar contractor.

The agreement prompted this comment from Cameron Moore, regional Head of Conergy Group in North America "We are looking forward to a successful partnership with Nanosolar. With every tenth solar system installed worldwide and an innovative product portfolio, Conergy has established itself as major supplier in the growing photovoltaic market. Conergy's extensive engineering and system competence matches perfectly with Nanosolar's best-in-class technology".

But Nanosolar, of course is not alone. Many other thin film start ups are also competing in the space including Innovalight, Konarka, Miasole and Heliovolt.

Long time solar companies, such BP, Royal Dutch Shell, and Honda are also working to establish themselves as thin film players.

In fact, in February Royal Dutch Shell sold its crystalline silicon business to SolarWorld choosing to concentrate its efforts solely on thin film instead.

Even Applied Material has gotten into the act. The chip maker recently bought Applied Films for $464 million last May as part of its effort to establish a toehold in the emerging technology.

So while some may still have a hard time taking solar seriously in light of falling crude prices, their math may cause them miss the boat. Solar power it now seems is ready to leave the harbor. And when it does it will have little or nothing to do with crude.

-Steve Christ

Discounted Solar

The silicon shortage that has continuously monopolized the anti-solar argument for the past two years has actually done more to spur innovation and further the technology than actually deter the market from jumping on board.

Rather than solar investors running for the hills every time silicon shortage reports come up, savvy Green Chip investors have simply turned their focus towards those companies using the silicon shortage to their advantage.

A perfect example is Evergreen Solar (ESLR:Nasdaq)

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In an effort to conserve silicon supplies while remaining competitive in the photovoltaic market, Evergreen Solar patented a manufacturing technology that produces its solar cells with just two-thirds the silicon that conventional manufacturers use.

Ultimately, this manufacturing process produces nearly one-and-a-half times as much power per pound of refined silicon as conventional methods.

In less than two years, Evergreen Solar has shot up over 600%.

But Evergreen Solar isn’t the only silicon-conserving game in town.

Today, some of the most impressive R&D in the world of solar is coming from labs that are perfecting CIS thin-film solar technology.

CIS thin-film solar is based on Copper, Indium and Selenium – a cell combination that while producing a lower total energy output than crystalline solar cells, is also much cheaper to manufacture…and doesn’t rely on silicon!

One of the leaders in CIS thin-film is Royal Dutch Shell. And its CIS solar has achieved some of the highest efficiency ratings for thin-film yet.

And just a few weeks ago, a small Massachusetts-based upstart called Stellaris Corporation won MIT’s Ignite Clean Energy Business Presentation. Now the company is negotiating with investors to raise money to begin manufacturing its solar panels which the company claims can be produced at a 40% discount to traditional panels by using special lenses to concentrate the sunlight as it hits the panel.

The idea is that by amplifying the light, the company can use less photovoltaic material.

The company intends to use thin-film technology as well.

For the latest in thin-film solar technology, as well as the companies profiting from silicon shortages, visit Green Chip Stocks now.

-Jeff Siegel